Morning Briefing for November 13, 2012 – Standard Capital

Karachi, November 13, 2012 (PPI-OT): Foreign Remittances: Only silver lining in an otherwise bleak scenario

Overseas Pakistani workers remitted a historic amount of US$1.365 billion in Oct FY12 as against $1.017 billion sent by them in the same month of the last fiscal year, Oct FY11 showing a tremendous jump of 34.11% on y-o-y basis whereas 20% M-o-M basis.

According to Standard Capital, the highest amount previously remitted in a single month by overseas Pakistanis was recorded in Aug FY11 when they sent home an amount of $1.310 billion.

The remittances received from all countries of the World showed a notable growth during Oct FY13, where the inflow of remittances from Saudi Arabia, UAE, USA, UK, GCC countries (including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman), and EU countries amounted to $347.52 million, $293.74 million, $217.56 million, $197.18 million, $163.37 million and $37.48 million respectively as compared with the inflow of $291.20 million, $216.50 million, $167.60 million, $117.56 million, $131.54 million and $28.08 million respectively in Oct FY12.

Remittances received from Norway, Switzerland, Australia, Canada, Japan and other countries during Oct FY13 amounted to $108.25 million as against $65.39 million received in the Oct,FY12.

The economy is likely to face considerable pressures on the external account during upcoming months due to an increase in trade deficit and dwindling financial account surplus. IMF repayments, though not reflected in the external account, would further strain on forex reserves. Pakistan is liable to adjust nearly US$ 2.5 billion in coming three months which underscores Standard Capital’s point of strain anticipated in forex reserves in the absence of any ‘true’ inflows. In the above backdrop, any increase in remittances should partly allay country’s weakening external account position.

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