IGI Securities Limited – Commodity News

Karachi, June 27, 2018 (PPI-OT): Crude Oil

Technical

The WTI Crude Oil market rallied significantly yesterday, as the $68 level has offered so much in the way of support. The $69 level above is significant resistance, and if it can break above that level, the market is likely to go towards the $70 handle. If it break down below the $67.50 level, the market could drop to the $66.50 level after that. It has seen a recent significant rally, but this week started out with a Lower, so this shows just how volatile this is going to be. Brent markets initially rallied yesterday as well, reaching towards the $75.50 level. However, it did pull back and testing the $75 level for support. Economists think there is plenty of support underneath, and it has seen significant pushes to the upside recently. The $76 level above as significant resistance, and if it can break above the level, it’s likely that the market could go to the $77 level after that.

Highlights

The Saudis plan to pump a record 10.8 million barrels a day, surpassing a previous high of 10.72 million barrels a day seen in November 2016

U.S pushed the allies to stop Iran oil imports to zero by November

Escalating trade disputes threaten growth (Updates prices, adds Saudi production figures)

Canada outage supports U.S crude prices, while Libyan uncertainty supports to crude exports

The global benchmark, rose $1.58 or 2.1% to end at $76.31 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, for the highest finish in nearly two weeks

Fundamentals

Oil prices jumped over 2 percent yesterday and U.S crude topped $70 for the first time in two months, as Washington pushed allies to halt imports of Iranian crude.

Brent crude gained $1.30 to trade at $76.03 a barrel. U.S light crude rose $2.08to $70.16. The move would follow the recent agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, and its allies.

The U.S expects all countries to cut oil imports from Iran to “zero” by Nov. 4 or risk sanctions, a senior U.S State Department official said yesterday, expressing a toughening of the Trump administration’s Iran policy as Washington tries to politically and economically isolate Tehran.

Buyers of Iranian crude had expected the U.S would allow them time to reduce their oil imports over a much longer period, by issuing sanctions waivers for nations that made significant efforts to cut their purchases.

Oil prices immediately jumped 3% on the news, with West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery rising to $70.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Doubts over OPECs ability to boost production quickly enough to prevent a shortfall in global supplies also contributed to oil’s rise.

Meanwhile, the administration doesn’t plan to issue any waivers, and would instead be asking other Middle Eastern crude exporters over the coming days to ensure oil supply to global markets.

Geopolitical tensions between the U.S and other nations as the Trump administration pits itself against its allies and other major economies over its nearly unilateral Iran policy and a host of challenges on trade.

You May Also Like