IGI Securities Limited – Commodity News

Karachi, September 20, 2017 (PPI-OT): Silver

Technical

Silver markets went sideways initially on Tuesday, but continue to find support near the $17.10 level. As we are starting to rally, I suspect that traders are betting on the Federal Reserve won’t be able to raise interest rates, as the markets have initially suspected. Although there has been a certain amount of selling pressure, the reality is that the hurricanes could have changed everything for the Federal Reserve. Quite frankly, the Federal Reserve cannot raise interest rates, it should drive the value of precious metals higher. Ultimately, this is a market that should continue to find buyers, and I believe that the $17 level is rather supportive in general. If we were to break down below that level, that would be very negative and ugly. I believe that the market is trying to bounce, reaching towards the $17.50 handle. That’s an area that was previously supportive, so it should now be resistive.

Highlights

Silver prices edged higher today, aided by a weaker dollar ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve policy announcement

A threat by U.S President Donald Trump to “totally destroy” North Korea also helped to push the dollar lower

The Fed is expected to say that it will start to reduce its balance sheet

Investors will scour its forecasts and a news conference by Chair Janet Yellen for clues

Markets are pricing in a 56 percent probability of the Fed raising rates in December

Fundamentals

Silver markets went sideways initially yesterday, but continue to find support near the $17.10 level. As we are starting to rally, I suspect that traders are betting on the Federal Reserve won’t be able to raise interest rates, as the markets have initially suspected.

Although there has been a certain amount of selling pressure, the reality is that the hurricanes could have changed everything for the Federal Reserve. Quite frankly, the Federal Reserve cannot raise interest rates, it should drive the value of precious metals higher.

Ultimately, this is a market that should continue to find buyers, and I believe that the $17 level is rather supportive in general. If we were to break down below that level, that would be very negative and ugly.

I believe that the market is trying to bounce, reaching towards the $17.50 handle. That’s an area that was previously supportive, so it should now be resistive.

If the Federal Reserve sounds as soft as I suspect that could, it’s possible that we can break above there. I believe that the pullback was necessary anyway, because we broke out of significant resistance as of late, but have not tested that area for support.

We see this repeatedly, and this move of course is in any different. I believe that if we break down below the $17 level however, that would be a very negative sign, and perhaps of the sellers jumping in hand over fist.

Ultimately though, I think that Silver is simply offering a value proposition going forward, and a break above the $17.50 level has this market looking towards the $18 level. Longer-term, I believe that Silver is trying to offer a nice buying opportunity for investors currently as we have seen a nice pullback.

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