IGI Securities Limited – Commodity News

Karachi, March 11, 2019 (PPI-OT): Gold

Technical

Gold markets initially fell during the week but turned around to rally quite stringently, especially on Friday. The first hint of a rally was several days in a row of sideways action. At the very least, it looks as if Gold is ready to rally and try to go looking towards the $1325 level again. It should be supported all the way down to at least the bottom of the candle stick for the week, if not down to the $1275 level as it is an area of a lot of order flow. The Federal Reserve may even cut rates next, and if that’s going to be the case that should send Gold much higher. If it did break down below the $1275 level that would of course be a very negative sign. That would open the door to the $1250 level and beyond. However, it doesn’t look to be anywhere near as likely after this weekly candle stick has formed.

Highlights

Gold inched down today, after rising about 1 percent in the previous session

The dollar rose 0.1% against major currencies and traded close to its near two-month peak

Gold is often seen as an alternative investment during times of political and financial uncertainty

A firm dollar offset support from fading appetite for riskier assets due to mounting global growth concerns

China and the US are still working day and night to achieve a trade deal that matches the interests of both sides and the hopes of the world

Fundamentals

Gold inched down today, after rising about 1 percent in the previous session, as a firm dollar offset support from fading appetite for riskier assets due to mounting global growth concerns.

Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,296.73 per ounce, after briefly breaching the $1,300 ceiling in the previous session. U.S gold futures were also down 0.1 percent at $1,298.10 an ounce.

U.S employment growth almost stalled in February, with the economy creating only 20,000 jobs, adding to signs of a sharp slowdown in economic activity in the first quarter.

The fall is a temporary occurrence due to some early morning profit taking after Friday’s move up. The U.S dollar is mostly stronger and that is adding some downward pressure on gold.

Structurally gold is well positioned to move higher over the coming months. As the world economy continues to slow and uncertainty increases, it is going to be supportive for gold.

The U.S economy created only 20,000 jobs in February, the weakest since September 2017, adding to signs of a sharp slowdown in economic activity in the first quarter.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Sunday that the U.S central bank does “not feel any hurry” to change the level of interest rates again as it watches how a slowing global economy affects local conditions in the United States.

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