IGI Securities Limited – Commodity News

Karachi, March 15, 2019 (PPI-OT): Crude Oil

Technical

The WTI Crude Oil market rallied, breaking above the 200 day EMA. At this point, it continue to see a lot of institutional demand, and of course momentum which has been so obvious. Because of this, it’s likely that it will continue to see a lot of back-and-forth on short- term charts but it certainly seems as if the buyers are starting to take over longer term. If that’s going to be the case, it will almost certainly reach towards the $60 level. Brent markets also look very bullish and have been grinding higher as well. However, it has given back quite a bit of the gains so if it break out to the upside for a longer-term move quite yet. If it do, then the market will almost certainly target the $68 level, followed by the $70 level. Both of these areas feature a certain amount of resistance, but the momentum that it has been building up for some time now will continue to be crucial.

Highlights

U.S oil prices up a fourth straight session after recent data revealed a weekly decline in domestic supplies

Oil has rallied around a quarter since the start of the year

Oil prices have been capped by concerns that an economic slowdown will soon start denting growth in fuel demand

China, the world’s biggest importer, in the first two months of 2019 rose 6.1 percent from a year earlier to a record 12.68 million bpd

Domestic crude oil production slipped for the first time this year

Fundamentals

Oil prices were firm today amid production cuts led by OPEC and as U.S sanctions against Venezuela and Iran likely created a slight deficit in global supply in the first quarter of 2019.

Brent crude oil futures were at $67.27 per barrel, 4 cents above their last close, and within a dollar of the $68.14 2019-high reached the previous day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were at $58.63 per barrel, 2 cents above their last settlement, and not far off their 2019-high of $58.74 from the previous day.

Crude oil continues to grind higher in response to ongoing production cuts from the OPEC+ group of producers as well as another output slump from a blacked-out Venezuela.

The OPEC and non-affiliated allies such as Russia, known as the OPEC+ alliance pledged to withhold 1.2 million barrels per day in crude supply from the start of the year to tighten markets and prop up prices.

Crude’s nearly 30 percent rise this year has been supported by bullish developments on the supply side, as OPEC and its allies cut production and as American sanctions tighten output from Iran and Venezuela.

Oil demand is expected to grow at a moderate pace in 2019, it is still well below the strong growth expected in the non-OPEC supply forecast for this year.

After the review meeting on March 17 and 18, ministers from the so-called OPEC+ alliance will gather in Vienna next month, and again in June, to decide on output policy for the second half of the year.

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