JS Securities Limited – Morning Briefing

Karachi, March 20, 2019 (PPI-OT): Power Generation down 5% YoY in Feb-19, FO’s role negligible

NEPRA reported a total of 6,687GWh of power generated for Feb-19 reflecting declines of 5% YoY and 14% MoM.

The future of Furnace Oil (FO) based production looks bleak with no such plants on the cards. Feb-19 saw negligible generation of 112GWh from FO down 91% MoM.

Average cost of power generation declined 33% YoY to Rs4.88/KWh while the cost of production during 8MFY19 averaged at Rs5.41/KWh, up 14% YoY.

Total generation declines in Feb-19 (5% YoY, 14% MoM)

National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) reported a total of 6,687GWh of power generated for Feb-19 reflecting declines of 5% YoY. Gas continued to gain its share in the energy mix and contributed 1,595 GWh (24%) towards the total power production last month, effectively making it the single most popular source. This was followed closely by Hydel generation with 1,523 GWh (23%) of power produced. It must be noted that in Jan-19 hydel generation declined significantly to just 6% of the total energy mix. Coal and RLNG contributed a total of 2,297GWh last month (~17% each). On a sequential basis, total power generation declined by 14% MoM. This was largely driven by a 93% MoM decline in Furnace Oil (FO) based production and a 20% MoM decline in coal based production. Total generation for 8MFY19 increased slightly by 4% YoY to 79,599GWh.

FO in the news, not in power: generation down 91% MoM

To say that the current government has had a harsh stance on Furnace Oil (FO) would be an understatement. With virtually no new FO-based power plants on the cards, the government’s intent to alter the energy mix becomes evident. The ban on FO-based power production was enforced in Nov-18 but limited uplift was permitted in the two subsequent months. As per the latest data, FO represented just 2% of the energy mix in Feb-19 with a negligible production of 112GWh, down 81% YoY. It should be noted that Feb-19 was the second-worst month for FO- based production in the current financial year. Cumulatively in 8MFY19, energy generation from FO was down 54% YoY.

Average cost of power generation declines 33% MoM

Average fuel cost during Feb-19 declined by 33% MoM to Rs4.88/KWh. With no High Speed Diesel (HSD) based production in Feb-19, FO was the most expensive fuel source at Rs11.91/KWh followed by imported fuel from Iran, which cost Rs11.57/KWh. At Rs7.89/KWh, generation from coal was 16% higher MoM in the latest numbers while Gas-based generation cost 14% more than it did in the preceding month. During 8MFY19 the cost of power production averaged at Rs5.41/KWh (up 14% YoY).

You May Also Like